FLAWS IN THE AHMADIYYA ECLIPSE THEORY
by
The Holy Month of Ramadan 1311 (March/April 1894) contained both a lunar and a solar eclipse. The Ahmadiyya community attaches great importance to them, believing that they conferred unusual and special status on their leader, Mirza Ghulam Ahmed (1).
Fundamental to their thesis is a claim that the lunar eclipse occurred
on the earliest possible date in an Islamic month - which they argue is
the 13th. For them, it was also significant that (according to their reckoning)
the subsequent solar eclipse took place on 28th Ramadan, supposedly occupying
the 'middle' of the permissible range of dates (2).
Admittedly, if people are following an Islamic calendar based on observations
made just at one point, then even a 30-hour crescent will
sometimes be missed, particularly if the sun-moon azimuth difference
is quite great. (Under these circumstances, incidentally, reports from
the opposite hemisphere (3) are usually positive).
However, by referring back to the beginning of the month, we notice a larger obstacle confronting eclipses on the 27th.
For the illustration in Figure 1, a lunation of 29.4 days was adopted (4) - less than the mean value of 29.53 days. Figure 1 uses a solar eclipse time almost at the end of the 27th day, such that its conjunction is assumed to occur 26.9 days after the commencement of the Islamic month. Subtracting that from 29.4 yields a 2½-day interval between the previous New Moon's birth and the onset of the month concerned (which is at sunset, as is customary). To make that possible, the crescent would have had to be invisible 24 hours earlier, i.e. approximately 1½ days after its conjunction (see Figure 1).
This could happen at a time and place with a comparatively shallow angle
between the ecliptic and the horizon (5), although it will probably need
the additional handicap of poor atmospheric visibility.
At Qadian on 8th March 1894, vertical separation between the centre of the sun and the base of the crescent at dusk measured 10 degrees (allowing for parallax but without refraction). This placed the moon in the grey area between a positive sighting and a failure. However, the crescent would probably have been observed from high-altitude stations to the north or east of Qadian - where the air tends to be thinner, less dusty, and drier.
At Qadian, it would have been sounder to commence Ramadan 1311 on 8th
March. Whenever haze prevents identification of a New Moon, as a general
rule it is advisable to inquire whether it was detected elsewhere, and
if so, to begin the new month immediately. This is because the sky could
become quite clean at the end of the same month, revealing the crescent
perhaps only 16 to 20 hours after conjunction. And if the first day of
that month had been 'lost', it might then have to finish incorrectly after
just 28 days. Two (or
even three) successive 29-day months can occur naturally: in those
circumstances the 28-day anomaly is possible with the later one - if its
start is postponed due to local bad weather.
Dhu al-Hijjah 1411 (13th June to 12th July 1991) at 25º South,
65º East - provides a specific example of that problem, as discussed
in URL http://meltingpot.fortunecity.com/melwood/368/questions9q.html#q16
If the Ahmadiyyas wish to base their decisions on observations made just at a specified point (like Qadian, where haze may hide a young moon), then lunar eclipses will sometimes be witnessed on the 12th of an Islamic month. This is because crescent identification is occasionally impossible even after 1½ days (as in Figure 1), and also because the interval between New and Full Moon can be less than 14 days.
The distribution of possible values of that interval (6) is depicted
in Figure 2. Short intervals occur when lunar perigee falls close to the
moon's First Quarter; long intervals straddle the apogee. Fluctuation
between the two extremes follows a 412-day cycle (7) - which is about 14
lunar months. (That is the average time taken for the perigee point to
complete a full circuit, i.e. migrating from New to Full Moon, and back
to New Moon).
Here is an illustration of a late start to an Islamic month resulting in an eclipse falling on its 12th day. At the beginning of nautical twilight on 8th February 2008 at 42º South, 50º East, the crescent will be quite close to the horizon - very difficult to see, (impossible in hazy conditions). A locally determined new month at this particular place (at sea level) will probably not commence until the evening of 9th February. In that case, the subsequent lunar eclipse on 21st February 2008 will be observed there (before dawn) on the 12th of the Islamic month. These dates could well prevail even if we decrease the latitude, say to 38º South; the haze on 8th February will just need to be slightly thicker.
Poor atmospheric visibility would also have obscured the Ahmadi Ramadan crescent on 8th March 1894 at 40º South, 120º West. If based on observations made just at this point, the new month would then have had to wait till the evening of the 9th - as at Qadian. In the southeast Pacific, however, the subsequent lunar eclipse on 21st March would have been witnessed in the early hours of the morning - which in that region was still 12th Ramadan. (Less haze would be necessary for a postponement to March 9th if we moved slightly further away from the equator, say to 45º South, 120º West).
There are well-documented instances in the past, when the lunar crescent
remained hidden in haze with a sun-moon separation and configuration similar
to these examples (8).
Thus, the Ahmadiyyas must either accept that eclipses may occur on the
12th of a lunar month as well as on the 27th - or else they must regard
eclipses as impossible on both those Islamic dates. Whichever choice is
made, requires revision of their thesis.
REFERENCES and NOTES
1. Ruhani Khaza'in 17 by Mirza Ghulam Ahmed (1984, orig. 1902); see page 132. See also 'Lunar and solar eclipses as signs of the promised Messiah' by Saleh M. Alladin (July 1987): Review of Religions 82(7). (The Ahmadiyya movement originated in what is now northern Pakistan).
2. The original hadith predicted the return of the Mahdi when a lunar
eclipse occurs at the beginning of an Islamic month, followed by a
solar one in the middle; (see Dar-e-Qatni 1, page 188). The Ahmadiyyas
interpret those words to mean 'the beginning (and middle) of the possible
range': see references in note 1. They maintain that lunar eclipses are
theoretically feasible only between the 13th and 15th inclusive, with solar
ones distributed among dates 27, 28 and 29. They therefore believe that
(for the prediction to be fulfilled) the lunar eclipse should take place
on the 13th (which is supposedly the first day in its 'range'), with the
solar one on the 28th (the middle day in its range).
3. 'A universal Islamic calendar' by David L. McNaughton (Jan. 1997): Hamdard Islamicus XX(1), pages 77-85. Figures 1 to 4 show how changes in hemisphere can affect prospects for sighting a newborn crescent. Diagram corrections appeared in July 1997 in Hamdard Islamicus XX(3), page 101.
4. To try and make a 27th-day event look more feasible, people might be tempted to choose an example when the lunar orbit-time (length of month) is particularly short. However, in one respect that will be counterproductive - because New Moon occurs near perigee during such months: see 'How long is a lunar month?' by Ala'a H. Jawad (Nov. 1993): Sky & Telescope 86(5), pages 76-77. Those circumstances accelerate the moon's migration, making it more likely to be spotted 24 to 36 hours after its birth.
5. See note 3.
6. Data supplied by Ala'a H. Jawad of the Kuwaiti Amateur Astronomy Society.
7. The graph in Internet site http://meltingpot.fortunecity.com/melwood/368/questions9q.html#lm14 depicts what is essentially the same oscillation (apart from a phase-difference of a few days).
8. 'Visibility of the lunar crescent' by Bradley E. Schaefer (1988): Q.J.R. Astron. Soc., 29, pages 511-523; (see observations 16, 22, 28, 99 and 100 in his Table I); and: 'Lunar crescent visibility' by Bradley E. Schaefer (1996): Q.J.R. Astron. Soc., 37, pages 759-768; (see his Figure 3); and: 'Limiting altitude separation in the New Moon's first visibility criterion' by Mohammad Ilyas (1988): Astron. Astropys. 206, pages 133-135; (see his Figures 1, 2, 3 and 5).
Contact Dr. David McNaughton
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